Introduction
Many households across the United Kingdom are anticipating a more expensive Christmas dinner this year. A recent survey of over 2,000 adults indicates that rising energy bills, inflation, and recent changes in taxation are the primary factors driving up the cost of festive celebrations.
As families plan their holiday meals, a significant proportion now expects to spend more than they did last year, reflecting wider concerns about the cost-of-living crisis. The findings come at a time when inflation remains stubbornly above the Bank of England’s target, and debates continue regarding government policies affecting food production and energy.
With the festive season underway, questions linger about how political decisions, corporate strategy, and economic headwinds will shape the affordability of traditional celebrations.
Households Anticipate Higher Festive Costs
A nationwide poll conducted by research consultancy Savanta between 5 and 8 December found that 55 percent of UK households expect to pay more for their Christmas meal compared with the previous year.
This sentiment spans all age groups but is particularly prominent among those aged 55 and over, with six in ten in this cohort predicting higher expenses. In the younger 18–34 demographic, just over half also expect costs to rise.
These expectations are informed by the ongoing cost-of-living crisis and follow consecutive years of real-terms price rises for essential goods in the UK.
Public Concerns Over Energy and Tax
Energy costs rank as the most significant contributing factor, with 58 percent of survey respondents citing higher utility bills as the main reason for increased festive food prices. Persistent inflation highlighted by 55 percent and supermarket pricing strategies named by 47 percent are also contributing to widespread concern.
Recent changes in government tax policies, including shifts to farm taxation, were cited by one in five (21 percent) as a direct cause of rising food prices, underlining the perceived effect of fiscal decisions on household budgets during key periods.
Political Policies Under Scrutiny
Taxation is a growing source of anxiety for many families, with Labour’s introduction of changes to inheritance tax on farming assets drawing particular attention.
These changes, sometimes referred to as the “family farm tax,” remove the longstanding inheritance tax exemption for farms, prompting fears they could lead to higher food production costs and, therefore, retail prices. Savanta’s data indicates that over a quarter of 18–34-year-olds view the policy as among their top financial concerns, compared with roughly one in five older respondents.
This generational split may reflect differing levels of exposure to agricultural issues and tax policy impacts.
Disputes Over Agricultural Taxation
Government ministers have insisted that the revised inheritance tax will affect only farms valued above £3 million, stating that over 70 percent of farms will be exempt from the new levy.
However, the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) disputes these figures, arguing that up to two-thirds of farms may be impacted, according to reported government data. Following the announcement of the new tax in her first Budget statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed a 20 percent inheritance tax would be applied to farming assets worth more than £1 million.
Opposition parties and rural advocates have warned that such measures could threaten the financial viability of family-run farms and disrupt food supply chains.
Impact on Food Retail and Supply Chains
Concerns extend to food retailers, with nearly half of survey participants expressing suspicion that supermarkets are raising prices to protect profits. The role of supermarket pricing strategy in food inflation has drawn criticism from various consumer groups.
At the same time, recent statements by the UK energy regulator (Ofgem) have confirmed that the energy price cap has risen by £190 since Labour’s election pledge to reduce annual bills by £300, intensifying the strain on household budgets.
This is despite falls in wholesale energy prices, which have not been fully reflected in consumer tariffs due to increased network and policy-related costs, including environmental levies.
Final Summary
The festive season is set against the backdrop of persistent economic pressures in the UK, according to recent survey data showing that most households anticipate higher costs for Christmas dinners.
The findings reflect concerns about rising energy bills, enduring inflation, and new or revised tax measures impacting both consumers and producers. Disagreement over the projected impact of changes to agricultural tax policy highlights tensions between policymakers and rural communities. Meanwhile, supermarket strategy and the broader energy market add further complexity.
As households adapt to evolving costs, many are seeking ways to manage budgets during the holidays a process made more transparent through digital tools such as the Pie app, which helps families track and understand household expenses throughout the year.
